Breaking Down US Inflation

Expected & Actual Inflation

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Interpretation

The chart above displays the Headline Inflation Rate and the forward-looking 5-Year and 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rates.
The headline inflation rate is defined as the yearly percentage change of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). When inflation is high, prices for goods and services rise and thus the purchasing power per unit of currency decreases.
The breakeven inflation rate is a market-based measure of expected inflation derived from government bond yields. It's calculated by subtracting the yield of an inflation-protected bond from the yield of a nominal bond with the same maturity (also see The Real Interest Rate). It's called the "breakeven" rate because it represents the inflation rate at which an investor would theoretically receive the same return from holding either a nominal bond or an inflation-protected bond to maturity.
The breakeven rate differs from headline inflation in that it's forward-looking, representing market expectations of future inflation, while headline inflation measures the actually realized past price changes.

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CPI Breakdown

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Interpretation

The chart above illustrates the annual percentage changes of the most heavily weighted components of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). These components include Shelter (36.2% of CPI), Commodities Less Food and Energy Commodities (18.5%), Transportation Services (6.5%), Medical Care Services (6.4%), and Education and Communication (4.9%). Together, these components make up the majority of the so called "Core Inflation".
The chart also includes Food (13.3%) and Energy (7.0%), which are by default hidden as they are typically excluded from Core Inflation calculations due to their volatile nature.
The chart shows how different sectors of the economy contribute to overall inflation trends, with Shelter playing a particularly significant role due to its large weighting in the CPI.

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